Monthly Archives: September 2013

Number of the Week: 10.60%
Class I Utilization in the Upper Midwest Federal Milk Marketing Order in August 2013 was 10.6% – a record low for August.

MIN Sep 27 - 550Stagnant fluid milk sales and growing cheese production jointly explain why the Class I utilization rate in the Upper Midwest Federal Milk Marketing Order has had a strong downward trend since 2000. The upside of low fluid milk utilization is that the adverse impact of declining fluid milk sales on the mailbox price producers in MInnesota receive will be lower than in other market orders where fluid milk utilization is much higher.

Explore Further:

Map of the Federal Milk Marketing Orders
Upper Midwest Dairy News

This week’s Minnesota in Numbers was produced with financial support from Minnesota Milk Producers AssociationMaggie Jennissen assisted in assembling the data. 

Number of the Week: 12
Minnesota has 12 artisinal/farmstead cheesemakers. 7 of them started production less than ten year ago.

MiN20130920 - Graph HiResMinnesota Cheese Festival, held in St Paul this past weekend, showcased the promise of artisinal cheese scene in our state. Minnesotans flocked to the state fairgrounds to taste award winning artisinal cheeses, attend seminars on dairy farming and learn about pairing cheese with beer and wine. The Minnesota Cheesemakers Guild was introduced as a new organization created to promote and advance awareness of our artisan/farmstead cheesemakers and Minnesota’s rich dairy heritage.

Explore Further:

Minnesota Cheese Festival
Minnesota Cheesemakers Guild

This week’s Minnesota in Numbers was produced with financial support from Minnesota Milk Producers Association. Help by Whitney McChane (Minnesota Cheese Festival) and David Weinand (Minnesota Department of Agriculture) is gratefully acknowledged. Maggie Jennissen assisted in assembing the data.

 

Number of the Week: $19.80.
Minnesota mailbox milk price for the fourth quarter of 2013 (Oct-Dec) is forecasted to be $19.80/cwt.

Min20130913 - Graph HiResLower feed prices are making impact on milk prices, with fourth quarter mailbox price predicted $2.96 or 13.1% below 2012 levels. This decline tracks closely the expected decline in corn prices. On September 12, 2012, December ’12 corn futures were $7.69/bu. In contrast, on September 12, 2013, Dec ’13 corn futures are $4.66/bu, or $3.03/bu less than the year prior.

Explore Further:
UW Understanding Dairy Markets

This week’s Minnesota in Numbers was produced with financial support from Minnesota Milk Producers AssociationMaggie Jennissen assisted in assembling the data. 

IMG_20130902_192938_176

 

Last week, my co-workers/students volunteered with me at the Milk Stand at the Minnesota State Fair. I can hardly find a better way to illustrate my approach to work than what is embedded in this photo: team up with smart and hardworking collaborators; do practical stuff, not research that is purely an “academic exercise”; serve public before anyone else; and produce added value and give thanks to dairy farmers who are funding my position, and enable me to work with such talented people like Fanda Yang (middle) and Dr. Vardges Hovhannisyan (right).

Fanda is a second year Ph.D. student with a B.A. in Management Science from Beijing Information Science & Technology University and Master in Financial Mathematics from University of Minnesota. His interests are in risk management and has been helping me on several projects related to dairy futures and options markets. This summer Fanda was an intern with Land O’Lakes and worked on designing and implementing corn yield forecasting models. Fanda is funded through a grant from the Office of the Chief Economist, USDA on a project where we will examine the influence new farm bill dairy programs could have on CME dairy futures markets.

Vardges holds a PhD in Agricultural and Applied Economics from University of Wisconsin-Madison, and has been my coworker at the University of Minnesota since September 2012. His specialty is modelling demand, and market power analysis. He has published in the American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsAgricultural EconomicsJournal of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Agribusiness: An International Journal. Support for Vardges this year comes from a project funded through the University of Minnesota Food Policy Research Center. We are looking into the effects of increasing concentration at the retail level on retailers’ ability to exercise market power in dairy products, i.e. lift prices consumers have to pay. It would be more accurate to say that I am helping Vardges, than the other way around. With FPRC grant, as with several joint manuscripts we have, Vardges took the lead and I merely helped secure an environment and support needed to help him excel.

Most recent addition to the Bozic Lab is Maggie Jennissen, an undergraduate student at the U of M, majoring in both Psychology and Applied Economics. Maggie is born and raised at the dairy farm, here in Minnesota. Most recently, she was an intern with Minnesota Milk Producers Association. Maggie is in charge of a newly started weekly column “Minnesota in Numbers”, published each Friday in Minnesota Milk Minute. “Minnesota in Numbers” is one of my activities supported by a grant from the Minnesota Milk Producers Association. Maggie will be graduating in December 2014, and my hopes are that she stays on as a Master’s student and specializes in dairy economic analysis.

Number of the Week: 9.3%.
Minnesota Cheddar Cheese production in July 2013 was 9.3% higher than in July 2012.

Min20130906 Graph HiRes

 

Minnesota cheddar cheese production increased by 3.47 million pounds in July 2013 over July 2012 (click image to enlarge it). This increase is almost entirely explained by recent expansion of the First District Association’s plant in Litchfield, MN. FDA cheddar cheese production was 15.1 million lbs. in July 2013, up 28% from July 2012.

 

Explore Further:

USDA Dairy Products Report
UW Understanding Dairy Markets

This week’s Minnesota in Numbers was produced with financial support from Minnesota Milk Producers Association. Help from Clint Fall, CEO of the First District Assocation is gratefully acknowledged. Maggie Jennissen assisted in producing this week’s Minnesota in Numbers.