• Bozic, M., J. Newton, C.S. Thraen and B.W. Gould. Forthcoming. "Tails Curtailed: Accounting for Non-linear Dependence in Pricing Margin Insurance for Dairy Producers." American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

  • Jackson, J., C.S. Thraen and M. Bozic. 2013. "Conflict Over Cooperation: Why So Much Disagreement Over the Proposed Dairy Market Stabilization Program?" Journal of Agricultural and Food Industry Organization 11(1):129-138 (link)

  • Hovhannisyan, V. and M. Bozic. Forthcoming. "Retailer Motivation to Adjust Milk Prices: An Analysis using Super-elasticity of Demand." Agribusiness: An International Journal. (link)

  • Hovhannisyan, V. and M. Bozic. 2013. "A Benefit Function Approach to Studying Market Power: An Application to U.S. Yogurt Market." Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 38(2):159-173 (link)

  • Bozic,, M., T. R. Fortenbery. 2012. "Creating Synthetic Cheese Futures: A Method for Matching Cash and Futures Prices in Dairy." Journal of Agribusiness, 30(2)87-102. (Staff Paper)

  • Bozic,, M., J. Newton, C.S. Thraen, and B.W. Gould. 2012. "Mean-reversion in Income Over Feed Cost Margins: Evidence and Implications for Managing Margin Risk by U.S. Dairy Producers." Journal of Dairy Science 95(12):7417-7428. (link) (Staff Paper)

  • Bozic,, M., C.A. Kanter, and B.W.Gould. 2012. "Tracing the Evolution of the Aggregate U.S. Milk Supply Elasticity Using a Herd Dynamics Model." Agricultural Economics 43(5): 515-530 (link)

  • Bozic, M. 2002. "Javni dug Republike Hrvatske u tranziciji." Financijska teorija i praksa, 24(4): 637-655, (html) (link)

  • Bozic, M. 2011. Three Essays in Commodity Futures and Options Price Performance. A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Agrcultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison. (link)

  • Bozic, M. 2009. An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Milk Production: A Herd Dynamics Model. A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts at the Joint European Master in Comparative Local Development, University of Trento, Italy. (link)

    Cumulative award: $918,838 (as PI: $799,407).

  • Dairy Economics Research Program
    Funding Agency: Midwest Dairy Association
    Timeline: 01/2014-07/2018
    Amount Funded: $500,000

    Dairy economics research activities in areas legally eligible for funding from dairy check-off will be supported by a framework funding agreement with the Midwest Dairy Association, with a total funding commitment of $500,000 paid over five years. Reseearch objectives:
    • To enhance the economic vitality of the dairy industry in Minnesota and the Midwest by providing research, analysis, insight and information for ensuring a diverse and vibrant market for milk produced by the region’s dairy farmers.
    • To enhance collaboration among Midwest land grant research institutions, state governments, dairy producers, processors and others in the dairy industry.
    • To conduct research and outreach in dairy economics topics of high relevance, primarily to the Midwest dairy industry, and secondarily to the entire U.S. dairy industry.


  • Adding Value to Acid Whey Residues from Dairy Processing: Technical Feasibility and Market Opportunity Analysis
    Funding Agency: USDA, AMS - Federal State Marketing Improvement Program; Midwest Dairy Association
    Timeline: 09/2013-08/2015
    Amount Funded: $62,534
    Co-Investigators: Dr. Tonya Schoenfuss, Food Science and Nutrition, University of Minnesota

    A recent rise in consumer demand for Greek yogurt has amplified the long-standing problem of acid (i.e. “sour”) whey, which is a byproduct of removing water from yogurt to achieve Greek-style thickness. While value was added to sweet whey by concentrating whey proteins, acid whey is not as rich in whey proteins because they are mostly retained in yogurt. Furthermore, due to its composition, acid whey is difficult to dry and handle. As such, this bystream is currently considered as waste, adding little value to dairy producers, and disposal problems to dairy processors. We propose to examine if additional marketing opportunities can be created for acid whey by converting it to soluble dietary fiber.


  • Farm and Market Level Effects of the 2013 Farm Bill Dairy Policy Reforms
    Funding Agency: USDA, Office of the Chief Economist
    Timeline: 09/2013-08/2014
    Amount Funded: $50,000

    The results of empirical analyses and in-person case studies both point to the importance of participation rates on expected government outlays and effectiveness of DMSP. Ongoing analysis by Dr. Bozic and others suggests that DPMPP could be a strong substitute for private risk insurance such as dairy futures and options contracts. Therefore, high participation rates may lead to significant crowding out effects, and liquidity of already thin dairy futures and options markets may further decline, reducing the opportunity of long hedgers to effectively manage their milk price risk exposure. This is especially concerning given the importance of forward contracts for dairy exports, as dairy commodity exporters use CME futures and options to transfer risk assumed by offering forward contracts to overseas dairy buyers. This cooperative agreement has these objectives: 1) estimate participation rate in new dairy programs across U.S. regions and farm sizes, 2) develop a theoretical model of market level effects of dairy policy on viability of private risk markets, and 3) suggest and evaluate policy modifications and private market innovations that may preserve and enhance liquidity of dairy futures and options markets in face of new dairy policy programs.


  • Effects of Retail Concentration on Market Power: The U.S. Fluid Milk Market
    Funding Agency: Food Policy Research Center, University Of Minnesota
    Timeline: 08/2013-02/2014
    Amount Funded: $40,000

    The US food marketing system has undergone significant structural changes over the past three decades. One such change, denoted in economics as concentration, refers to the pattern of rising market shares of only a few competitors. Is concentration good or bad for consumers? Traditionally, rising concentration has been modeled in economic theory as fertile ground for welfare-reducing exercise of market power, i.e. business strategies that reduce variety and availability of products in order to increase the product price and obtain higher profit margins on the back of retail customers. More recent theories, on the contrary, maintain that an increase in market concentration is beneficial to consumers, as larger businesses can be more efficient. In this study, we will develop a novel methodological approach that will examine the effects of rising concentration on retail market power in the U.S. dairy sector.


  • North Central Farm Bill Education for Dairy Producers
    Funding Agency: North Central Risk Management Education Center
    Timeline: 08/2013-08/2014
    Amount Funded: $49,912

    The dairy subtitle of the 2013 Farm Bill will eliminate the Dairy Product Price Support and Milk Income Loss Contract programs and replace them with a subsidized margin insurance program (Dairy Producer Margin Protection Program) and (possibly) a supply management program (Dairy Market Stabilization Program). In this project we will (i) develop a web-based decision-support software system to facilitate the understanding of the new dairy provisions and (ii) use this software to support an educational program in the North Central region.


  • Consumer Welfare Implications of the Dairy Market Stabilization Program
    Funding Agency: University of Minnesota, Office of the Vice President for Research
    Timeline: 01/2013-08/2014
    Amount Funded: $39,691

    Voluntary nature of the Dairy Market Stabilization Program may result in radically different milk price and consumer impacts than those one might expect from standard mandatory supply management policy. For example, Nicholson and Stephenson (2010) found that mandatory supply management increases long-run milk prices by 17 cents or 1.06%. In contrast, Nicholson and Stephenson (2011) find that under the scenario of high participation rates, voluntary supply management program would result in reduction in long-run average milk prices by as much as 92 cents or 5.7%. This difference, not just in magnitude but the direction of the effect as well, is due to self-selection of existing dairy producers to the DMSP, and unconstrained free-entry of new dairy farmers not participating in the program. Under the assumption of high participation rate, voluntary supply management does manage to reduce margin risk, making milk production a more attractive business, and thus stimulating additional milk production – ultimately reducing average milk prices. Increase in short-run milk prices, and the potential for reduction of long-run average milk prices have conflicting impacts on consumer welfare. On the one hand, if low milk prices occur in times of dampened aggregate demand and high unemployment rates, short-term increase in milk prices might produce strong adverse effects on consumer welfare. On the other hand, with milk production less risky, more milk might be produced in the long run, reducing milk prices and increasing consumer welfare. Hence, the question that remains unanswered thus far is – will consumers be better off under proposed dairy policy changes?

  • Hovhannisyan, V. and M. Bozic. 2013. "On Price Endogeneity in the Analysis of Food Demand in China." Staff Papers 13-5, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota. (link)

  • Wolf, C., M. Bozic, J. Newton and C.S. Thraen 2013. "Moove Over: Will New Government-Sponsored Dairy Margin Insurance Crowd Out Private Market Risk Management Tools?" Paper Presented at AAEA 2013 Crop Insurance and the Farm Bill Symposium, Louisville, KY, October 8-9. (link)

  • Paterson, M., S. Clark, M. Bozic, K. Prusa and C. Strohbehn. 2013. "Assessment of consumer perceptions, preferences, and behaviors with fluid milk from different packaging." Annual Mtg. American Dairy Science Association, Indianapolis, IN. (abstract) (poster)

  • Newton, J., C.S. Thraen and M. Bozic. 2013. "Whither Dairy Policy? Evaluating Expected Government Outlays and Distributional Impacts of Alternative 2013 Farm Bill Dairy Title Proposals." Paper presented at AAEA Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., 4-6 August. (link)

  • Hovhannisyan, V., Stiegert, K. and M. Bozic. 2013. "On Endogeneity of Retail Market Power in an Equilibrium Analysis: A Control Function Approach." Paper presented at AAEA Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., 4-6 August. (link)

  • Hovhannisyan, V. and M. Bozic. 2013. "Own and Cross Pass-Through in a Structural Framework." Poster presented at AAEA Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., 4-6 August. (link)

  • Newton, J., C.S. Thraen and M. Bozic. 2013. "Actuarially Fair or Foul? Asymmetric Information Problems in Dairy Margin Insurance", Paper presented at the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting and Market Risk Management, St. Louis MO, 22-23 (link)

  • Bozic, M., J. Newton, C.S. Thraen and B.W. Gould. 2012. “Do Volatility Smiles Matter for Pricing Asian Basket Options? The Case of Livestock Gross Margin Insurance for Dairy Cattle.” Working Paper P12-02, Program on Dairy Markets and Policy (link)

  • Bozic, M., J. Newton, C.S. Thraen and B.W. Gould. 2012. “Parametric Bootstrap Tests for Futures Price and Implied Volatility Biases with Application to Rating Livestock Margin Insurance for Dairy Cattle.” Staff Paper P12-9, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota (link)

  • Bozic, M., J. Newton, C.S. Thraen and B.W. Gould. 2012. “Livestock Gross Margin Insurance for Dairy: Designing Margin Insurance Contracts to Account for Tail Dependence Risk.” Paper presented at AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle WA, 12- 14 August. (link)

  • Bozic, M., and T.R. Fortenbery. 2012. “Price Discovery, Volatility Spillovers and Adequacy of Speculation in Cheese Spot and Futures Market.” Paper presented at the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting and Market Risk Management, St. Louis MO, 15-17 April. (link)

  • Bozic, M., and T.R. Fortenbery. 2011. “Pricing Options on Commodity Futures: The Role of Weather and Storage” Paper presented at AAEA Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh PA, 24-26 July. (link)

  • Bozic, M., and T.R. Fortenbery. 2010. “Analyzing Relationships Between Cash and Futures Dairy Markets Using Partially Overlapping Time Series” Paper presented at SAEA Annual Meeting, Orlando FL, 6-9 February. (link)

The Program on Dairy Markets and Policy

  • Bozic, M., Newton, J., Novakovic, A.M., Stephenson, A.M., and C.S.Thraen. 2014. "Dairy Subtitle of the Agricultural Act of 2014." Information Letter 14-01. Program on Dairy Markets and Policy (link)

  • Bozic, M. and C. Wolf. 2013. "Large Herd Operator Opinions about Participation in the Proposed Farm Bill Dairy Programs." Briefing Paper 13-01. Program on Dairy Markets and Policy. (link)

  • Newton, J., Thraen, C.S., Bozic, M., Stephenson, M.S., Wolf, C. and B.W. Gould. 2013. "Goodlatte-Scott vs. the Dairy Security Act: Shared Potential, Shared Concerns and Open Questions." Briefing Paper 13-01, Midwest Program on Dairy Markets and Policy. (link)

Popular Press
  • Bozic, M., Newton, J., Novakovic, A.M., Stephenson, M.W. and C.S. Thraen. "What dairy policy changes ended up in the Farm Bill?" Progressive Dairyman, February 25, 2014, pg 33-36. (link)

  • Newton, J., C.S. Thraen and M. Bozic. 2013. "Stabilization would impact farms differently." Hoard's Dairyman, December 2013, pg 814. (link)

  • Bozic, M. 2013. "Could Dairy Margin Insurance be as Popular as Crop Insurance?" Hoard's Dairyman, November 2013, pg 770. (link)

  • Bozic, M., Newton, J. and C.S. Thraen. 2013. "Dairy Subtitle to the 2013 Farm Bill: Critical Issues and Options." Issue Brief. Food Policy Research Center, University of Minnesota. (link)

  • Bozic, M. 2013. "Introducting Minnesota in Numbers." Dairy Star, October 25, 2013. (link)

  • Bozic, M., Newton, J. and C.S. Thraen. 2013. "Dairy Proposals Offer Effective Catastrophic Insurance." Hoard's Dairyman, May 25 2013, pg 768. (link)

  • Bozic, M. 2013. "What Do Dairy Exports Mean for Minnesota?" Dairy Star, May 11, 2013. (link)

  • Bozic, M. 2012. "Model Helps Predict Income over Feed Costs." Hoard's Dairyman, November 2012, pg 768. (link)

Dairy Star, Minnesota in Numbers

  • February 8, 2014: "2014 Farm Bill is Here." (link)

  • December 21, 2013: "Are IOFC Margins and Minnesota Milk Yields Negatively Correlated?" (link)

  • December 7, 2013: "How Important is Dairy in Top 10 Milk Producing States?" (link)

  • November 23, 2013: "Impact of the Dairy Market Stabilization Program" (link)

  • November 9, 2013: "Minnesota Dairies Lead the Nation in Homegrown Feed." (link)

  • October 26, 2013: "Minnesota Year-On-Year Fluid Milk Sales Down 5.1%." (link)

  • October 26, 2013: "Introducing Minnesota in Numbers" (link)

Hoard's Dairyman, Milk Check Outlook
  • November 2013: "Could Dairy Margin Insurance be as Popular as Crop Insurance?" (link)

  • November 2012: "Model Helps Predict Income over Feed Costs." (link)

  • Omaha World-Herald, March 21, 2014: "Here’s why milk prices are high and expected to get higher" (link)

  • Star Tribune, March 16, 2014: "Fewer U.S. Consumers Drinking Milk" (link)

  • Time, March 12, 2014: "Europe's War on American Cheese" (link)

  • NBC News, March 11, 2014: "Price of All-American Egg and Bacon Breakfast Harder to Swallow" (link)

  • Dairy Herd Management, March, 2014: "Dairy Margin Protection Program Summarized" (link)

  • Dairy Today, February 25, 2014: "Finally, a Farm Bill." (link)

  • Cheese Reporter, February 7, 2014: "Senate OKs, President Obama To Sign New Farm Bill; Focus Turns To Implementation." (link)

  • Cheese Reporter, January 31, 2014: "Partners Announce Long-Term Commitment To Support Dairy Economics Research Program At University Of Minnesota." (link)

  • Agri News, February 5, 2014: "Increased support leads to better focus on dairy economics." (link)

  • Washington Post, January 15, 2014: "U.S. dairy industry wants price protections in the farm bill" (link)

  • Dairy Today, January, 2014: "Where will you build your next dairy?" (link)

  • Hoard's Dairyman, December 2013: "Stabilization would impact farms differently." (link)

  • Time, December 11, 2013: "People Are Freaking Out About $8-a-Gallon Milk." (link)

  • Dairy Today, December 5, 2013: "Sixty Percent Chance of Farm Bill?" (link)

  • Dairy Today, November 18, 2013: "Gaming the Farm Bill." (link)

  • Dairy Today, November 6, 2013: "Dairy Supply Management Could Affect States Differently." (link)

  • Hoard's Dairyman, November 2013: "Could Dairy Margin Insurance be as Popular as Crop Insurance?" (link)

  • Cheese Reporter, November 1, 2013: "Costs Of Farm Bill Dairy Proposals Could Be Up To Three Times As High As Costs Of Current Programs; Large Farms Benefit More." (link)

  • Dairy Today, October 30, 2013: "New Farm Bill Dairy Provisions Effective, But More Expensive." (link)

  • Dairy Star, October 25, 2013: "Introducting Minnesota in Numbers" (link)

  • DairyLine Radio, October 18, 2013: "“MILC & Honey” Proposal Drawing Some Attention." (link) (listen)

  • Dairy Today, June 4, 2013: "Dairy Policy Roulette." (link)

  • Hoard's Dairyman, May 25, 2013: "Dairy Proposals Offer Effective Catastrophic Insurance." (link)

  • Dairy Today, May 17, 2013: "Is the Dairy Debate Asking The Wrong Question?" (link)

  • Dairy Today, February 27, 2013: "Dairy Talk: No slam dunks in dairy policy" (link)

  • Cheese Reporter, April 12, 2013: "With Farm Bill Action Nearing, Dairy Security Act Debate Heats Up" (link)

  • Minnesota Public Radio, December 27, 2012: "Will milk prices double without farm bill renewal?" (link)

  • Dairy Today, November 28, 2012: "A Better Way" (link)

  • Progressive Dairyman, November 21, 2012: "A winning strategy with LGM-Dairy" (link)

  • Hoard's Dairyman, November 2012: "Model Helps Predict Income over Feed Costs." (link)

  • Dairy Today, December 1, 2011: "Dairy Exports Might Not Enhance Price" (link)

  • Progressive Dairyman, November 1, 2011: "New hires - November" (link)